Blog posts from CYBAEA

Most decisions are wrong

3 March 2006

In an uncertain, changing world, most decisions are wrong, and success comes not from the inspired visions of exceptional leaders, or prescience achieved through sophisticated analysis, but through small-scale experimentation that rapidly imitates success and acknowledges failure.

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Making navigation complex

1 March 2006

Google with its simple do-as-I-mean interface reigns supreme on the web. With an ever-growing focus on simplification in navigation, it is instructive to step back and challenge the goal occasionally.

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Prayer podcasting

28 February 2006

You know a technology has reached mainstream when you are no longer surprised by who is adopting it. In that sense, it is completely non-news that the Jesuits in London are launching Pray-As-You-Go just in time for Lent. One new prayer and meditation every day, already formatted for your iPod or mobile phone, and perfect for your daily commute.

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Are you useful after the event?

28 February 2006

Consider the web sites for organizations that provide events for your life, either in the sense of for example conferences which are events in themselves or places like museums where going is an event for you. All of the museum web sites that I know are useful when I am planning my trip. They tell me where and when to go, what it will cost, and what I can expect to see.

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The Economist on ‘The blog in the corporate machine’

12 February 2006

The article The blog in the corporate machine from this week’s edition of The Economist is focusing squarely on managing corporate reputations in a blogging world, and is interesting for a number of reasons.

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Why is knowledge management failing?

6 November 2005

Martin and Dave wonders why knowledge management has failed: the grand (and sometimes successful) projects of the late nineties and early noughties have come to nothing, and today’s businesses pay only lip-service to being part of “the knowledge economy”. Martin, always perceptive, suggests that the challenge may be cultural.

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Return on Customer and change in market capitalization

6 November 2005

Our long-suffering readership is presumably tired of hearing anymore about our analysis of the UK mobile industry. We promise that this post is the last in the series unless we discover any new and truly remarkable insights.

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Valuation of O2 mobile business

6 November 2005

In our previous analysis we suggested that O2 was undervalued relative to the rest of the UK mobile industry, though that wasn’t our main objective. In summary, we showed that the key markets customer equity (essentially the long-term value of all customers in all key markets) was strongly correlated with the market capitalization of the company. The slope of the fit is unity; in other words the customer equity is the market capitalization, as shown by the green line in the graphs below.

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ROC for mobile industry 2

8 October 2005

Somebody commented that our previous analysis of the Return on Customer formulas for the mobile industry did not take into account the change in the overall number of subscribers.

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Customer equity and enterprise value in the mobile industry - Take 2

6 October 2005

In our previous post we showed a very strong correlation between the market capitalization of three very different mobile companies and their UK performance. In this post we extend the analysis. Background

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