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We have a mild obsession with employee productivity and how that declines as companies get bigger. We have previously found that when you treble the number of workers, you halve their individual productivity which is scary.
We now re-do the analysis four years later and, just because we can, we are using the leading companies of the London stock exchange instead of the largest American companies.
The results still hold. We called it the 3/2 rule: treble the number of workers and you halve their individual productivity. Large companies with ten times the number of employees are ¼ as productive as their smaller competitors.
Employee productivity is a big issue. If all the FTSE-100 companies achieved their average profits per employee, then the index would generate almost £1 trn of additional net profits for the economy.
Read more (~245 words).
We knew the potential existed already, of course. Mobile devices in the USA generates some 600 billion transactions per day, each tagged with the location and time. Jeff Jonas: Every call, text message, email and data transfer handled by your mobile device creates a transaction with your space-time coordinate[...].
The mobile operators have this data, of course. We all know this (especially here where we have been using some of it for social network analysis). No real surprises here, except perhaps in the volumes.
But did you know that the operators are sharing your data? What is new, at least to me, is that this data is being provided to third parties that are leveraging specially designed analytics to make sense of our space-time-travel data.
Read more (~449 words, 1 comments).
The nice people at Velocity has released The B2B Content Marketing Workbook. It is behind a registration wall which means we wouldn’t normally recommend it but you can just type junk in the fields if you are not comfortable with giving your personal details to a marketing agency. (Think about it....) If you are relatively new in the B2B world, say having joined a professional services or consulting organization, you may find this one useful.
Read more (~263 words).
A story from antiquity involving a king of Rome and a Greek Sibyl has lovely marketing lessons for today.
Sometime around 576 BC the Cumaean Sibyl arrives in Rome and offer nine books of her prophesies to King Tarquin, the legendary (in both senses of the word) last king of Rome (they had emperors after that).
The king laughs at the enormous sum she is asking for the books and sends her packing. She then burns three of the books and goes back to the king offering the six books at the same high price as the original nine. He rejects her again.
Then she burns three more of the books and offer the last three to the king at the same price.
This time he buys them.
Read more (~269 words).
Havard Business School has an interesting study titled Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?. I would like to get my hands on the raw data (which is from the Korean social site Cyworld), but the outline conclusions seems plausible:
Read more (~173 words).
The results from the KDD Cup 2009 are both interesting and fundamentally not interesting. For this public data mining challenge Orange, the mobile telecommunications company, provided anonymous data sets on mobile customers: 50,000 records each of training and testing data with 15,000 variables. (The data set are still available for download and there are also smaller data sets with only 230 variables.) The competition was to provide the best models for churn, cross-sell (“appetency”), and up-sell.
The problem with the competition is that we do not know what the data means: the variables are simply named Var1, Var2, ..., Var15000. This means that this is purely a statistical exercise and no understanding of the business problem is required or helpful. Which is really disappointing and made the challenge much (much) less interesting for me.
Read more (~450 words).
The financial crisis is all my fault. Or so David Smith from our friends REvolution seems to suggest in his post Physicists, models, and the credit crisis:
I remember working in The City in the late 90's and Wall Street in the early 00's and remarking then that just about every quant had a physics or engineering background. I met very few statisticians. Quantitative models have taken a hefty share of the blame for the credit crisis, but I wonder whether the blame lies more in their application, rather than the models themselves. Statisticians are trained on the limitations of models, and how to detect when models are breaking down, but statisticians were woefully underrepresented amongst quants. Do physicists and engineers get similar training?
I was a physicist who left the CERN research facility to work as a quant in an investment bank in the days before “banker” became a four-letter word, so I do have an opinion on this. I firmly believe that no statistician should ever be allowed out in the wild unsupervised, and this gives me an opportunity to also comment on the current crisis: We have the luxury to be angry with the bankers. I do not want to take that luxury away from us: it is wonderful that we can afford to indulge ourselves. But I would like to remind us that is is a luxury that we can afford, and that we can afford it at least in part due to those bankers.
Read more (~964 words, 2 comments).
Twenty years ago, on 13th March 1989, Tim Berners-Lee wrote the original proposal for what was to become the World Wide Web. Happy birthday!
Read more (~132 words).
All too often marketing departments thinks that database analysis is the first, last, and only step in segmenting the base of existing customers. In fact, identifying clusters of common behaviors is only the first activity you should undertake in creating a customer base segmentation.
In this article we identify the five steps you need to follow for success. We also discuss when you can cut short the five step process.
Read more (~1170 words).
Over the last years we have been doing a tremendous amount of customer segmentation work with the marketing departments in companies across a number of industries. We have experienced that there are many misconceptions about what “segmentation” really is, why we do it, and what we can expect to achieve from it.
In this first article in a series, we look at the goals and objectives you should set yourself for the customer segmentation effort.
Read more (~1110 words).
Marc Andreessen, who as founder of Netscape and other companies knows a thing or two about the subject, has a nice little series on The Truth About Venture Capitalists, part 1, part 2, and part 3. We've said something similar before, but Marc puts it very well.
Read more (~84 words).
We are keen on innovation here at CYBAEA, so I feel obliged to mention two articles on the subject that I noticed this week. One talks about urban growth and what we might call the innovation horizon while the other argues that there are no age limits on innovation.
Read more (~923 words).
McKinsey writes about Better Strategy Through Organizational Design and come out strongly in favor of Enterprise Social Software and collaboration techniques:
[T]he new element that can help 21st-century corporations create more wealth is large-scale collaboration, across the entire enterprise, enabled by digital technology. ... Digital technology provides the means not just to promote efficient, effective, and large-scale collaboration but also to measure each person’s “assists” and thus motivate employees to collaborate in ways that were not possible in the past.
Their arguments are closely linked to the profits per employee measure we introduced back in October last year. This is the most important metric for the CEO to manage.
Read more (~381 words).
If you are into security, classification, and document sharing, then you need to read Jeff Jonas' post "Need to Know" vs. "Need to Share" – A Very Fine Line Indeed. Otherwise you should probably skip it.
Jeff, whom I met at the ETech conference, is one of the smartest guys around, and if you are interested in information sharing, data privacy, and mining shared data, then you will be interested in his blog.
Read more (~99 words).
I am in Las Vegas for the Unica user conference where we are considering the future of marketing (and how Unica can help you spend a lot of money, naturally). Darcy Bevelacqua from Harte Hanks had a neat line. As a consultant, she gets called in to help companies to define their direct marketing (and customer relationship) approach and to implement it. Her first question is Do you have a customer strategy?
, and the answer is almost inevitable yes
.
She then goes to Sales, Marketing, and Customer Service and seperately asks the question: Who is your best qustomer?
If she doesn't get the same answer, then she knows you do not have a customer strategy, not matter what your corporate slide-ware says.
She never gets the same answer.
Read more (~141 words).
The BBC is reporting on a row over HD-DVD encryption which was broken almost half a year ago by some customer who actually wanted to watch the movie he (thought he) had purchased.
I think it is terrible that anybody would even think about bypassing digital restrictions management (DRM) technologies, much less actually distribute the 16 bytes that makes up the decryption key in hexadecimal digits or otherwise. Truly terrible. I would never do such a thing. Ever.
Read more (~79 words).
The Post-GUI era
. I like the expression and I think what it tries to encapsulate is important.
I am back from O’Reilly’s 2007 Emerging Technologies conference. The recurring theme of the conference, at least to my mind, was this: as technology becomes ubiquitous we need to think much harder about how technology interfaces with humans.
The world already has an interface, and it isn’t a GUI. We should learn from that.
Read more (~574 words).
Enterprise Social Software has gone mainstream. I say this based on the fact that the analysts are now releasing stacks of research on this area. Forrester is a good example, and McKinsey is also in on it (yes, Web 2.0 is a strategic management issue now).
Read more (~480 words).
We don't normally post just links, but sometimes it is just too hard to keep up with the good stuff. Mike writes from South Africal about lessons learned from social software implementations, and Centopeia (almost as difficult a name as CYBAEA!) comments on Lee's presentation at LIFT.
Read more (~113 words).
Interest in productivity and how to manage innovation and know-how appears to be growing. Our article on employee productivity gets about four times more hits than the next most popular post. I imagine that more and more people in the West are waking up to the fact that innovation and high productivity is the only thing that keeps jobs here.
A recent paper from Harvard considers the optimal implementation of knowledge management. The maths is ridiculous, but the conclusions broadly ring true. With a slight reformatting for clarity:
We derive three main results [about the optimal management of know-how].
- First, information about successes is typically more useful than information about failures, since successful methods can be replicated while failures can only be avoided. This supports firms' focus on 'best practice'.
- Second, recording mediocre know-how can actually be counter-productive, since such mediocre know-how may inefficiently reduce employees' incentives to experiment. This is a strong-form competency trap.
- Third, the firms that gain most from a formal knowledge system are also the ones that should be most selective when encoding information (i.e., the ones that are most at risk from the competency trap); namely, large firms that repeatedly face problems about which there is little general knowledge and that have high turnover among their employees.
Read more (~523 words).
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On 2010-07-13 07:47:00, Allan Engelhardt wrote in CYBAEA Data and Analysis:
I am not sure apeescape’s ggplot2 area plot with intensity colouring is really the best way of presenting the information, but it had me intrigued enough to replicate it using base R graphics.
The key technique is to draw a gradient line which R does not support natively so we have to roll our own code for that. Unfortunately, lines(..., type="l") does not recycle the colour col= argument, so we end up with rather more loops than I thought would be necessary.
We also get a nice opportunity to use the under-appreciated read.fwf function.
Read more (~535 words).
On 2010-06-22 11:45:00, Allan Engelhardt wrote in CYBAEA Journal:
We have a mild obsession with employee productivity and how that declines as companies get bigger. We have previously found that when you treble the number of workers, you halve their individual productivity which is scary.
We now re-do the analysis four years later and, just because we can, we are using the leading companies of the London stock exchange instead of the largest American companies.
The results still hold. We called it the 3/2 rule: treble the number of workers and you halve their individual productivity. Large companies with ten times the number of employees are ¼ as productive as their smaller competitors.
Employee productivity is a big issue. If all the FTSE-100 companies achieved their average profits per employee, then the index would generate almost £1 trn of additional net profits for the economy.
Read more (~245 words).
On 2010-06-22 11:20:00, Allan Engelhardt wrote in CYBAEA Data and Analysis:
We have a mild obsession with employee productivity and how that declines as companies get bigger. We have previously found that when you treble the number of workers, you halve their individual productivity which is mildly scary.
We revisit the analysis for the FTSE-100 constituent companies and find that the relation still holds four years later and across a continent.
Read more (~763 words, 5 comments).
On 2010-06-17 09:05:00, Allan Engelhardt wrote in CYBAEA Data and Analysis:
Following on from my previous post about improving performance of R by linking with optimized linear algebra libraries, I thought it would be useful to try out the five benchmarks Revolutions Analytics have on their Revolutionary Performance pages.
Read more (~300 words, 2 comments).
On 2010-06-15 10:21:00, Allan Engelhardt wrote in CYBAEA Data and Analysis:
Can we make our analysis using the R statistical computing and analysis platform run faster? Usually the answer is yes, and the best way is to improve your algorithm and variable selection.
But recently David Smith was suggesting that a big benefit of their (commercial) version of R was that it was linked to a to a better linear algebra library. So I decided to investigate.
The quick summary is that it only really makes a difference for fairly artificial benchmark tests. For “normal” work you are unlikely to see a difference most of the time.
Read more (~934 words, 1 comments).